Suchergebnisse

In Kenya, all multiparty-elections since 1992 have resulted in post-election ethnic violence. There was, however, a puzzling peace following the 2013 election. Previously assumed rigid ethnic identities suddenly seemed flexible and accepting. To explore inter-ethnic relations between three ethnic groups in conflict since 1992, I took advantage of a natural experiment in inter-ethnic contact afforded by rural to urban migration. I collected original empirical data from 222 interviews from three homogeneous ethnic villages and Nakuru, an ethnically heterogeneous city. Findings suggest only Kalenjins and Luos significantly become tolerant towards each other, while Kalenjins and Kikuyus and Kikuyus and Luos remain highly tolerant and intolerant, respectively, even after coming in contact. The cultural differences between Luos and Kikuyus also make them hostile towards each other, while the other two dyads remain unaffected. But all three dyads showed significant political and social tolerance changes in their relationships by social and political, respectively. Implications include a return to seriously consider objective differences as sources of conflict, a need to assess the socialization process between tribes, and establishing how community and political leaders collude in ethnic voting.

Of the 79 countries that experienced civil wars (1944-2008,) only 33 had one, and only one, civil war. If civil war recurrence is the norm rather than the exception, there is an apparent postwar reconstruction problem. To address this problem, this study asks "how long does post war peace last?" and "what are the determinants of civil war recurrence?" Using survival analysis on an originally extended dataset of civil wars (1944-2008,) this study expands the scope of a small number of previous studies done on recurrence and gives the most updated findings. The analysis suggests that per capita income growth, the presence of UN peacekeepers, countries that experienced territorial wars, and peace settlements over time reduce the risk of recurrence and foster a more enduring peace. But, if the country's previous war was fought on ethnic lines and was highly violent, the risk of recurrence increased, decreasing the durability of peace. Significant factors from previous studies of risk reduction, the type of regime and if the previous war ended in a victory, were insignificant in this study. This study prescribes peace settlements with UN peacekeeping forces acting as third-party enforcers of peace together with high per capita GDP growth.